Seeding Socioeconomic Avalanches! [Hacked by WordPress; filtered by Google!]

Archive for March, 2008

Giga Trends

Posted by terres on March 28, 2008

Know Exactly Where You Are Heading

Without a complete change of direction in human activities, the economy and lifestyles, and based on the elite Zeitgeist, “World Spirit,” the available data and observed trends

  • History of civilization (past experience)
  • Current socioeconomic developments (present trends)
  • The exponential rate at which the dynamics of collapse are compounded (future events)

CASF Model, using seven “Giga Trends,” has produced the following forecast concerning the probability of incidence of each trend.

End Game Scenarios

  • The Champaign Club Scenario. Water, food, shelter, sanitation, education, health and energy continue to be available at increasingly higher prices to anyone who can afford it.
  • The Gaza Strip Scenario. Majority of humanity is caged like animals, and kept under permanent military curfew.
  • Involuntary Mass ‘Euthanasia’ Scenario. More than 90 percent of world population is annihilated by the world elite via conventional methods such as genocide by starvation, ethnic cleansing, disease and poverty, or using biological and chemical agents including exotic depopulation weapons.
  • A Sustainable Future Scenario. Humanity rapidly climbs the evolutionary ladder, reverses the exponential growth economy and opts for non-suicidal, sustainable lifestyles.
  • Extraterrestrial Doom Scenario. Life on Earth becomes extinct [in the next seven years] when a large extraterrestrial object (asteroid or bolide) strikes the planet.
  • Lifestyle Global War Scenario. A war fought to secure additional resources required for maintaining unsustainable lifestyles.
  • Large-scale Global Catastrophes. Sudden death (major species extinction) caused by multiple ‘natural’ factors (larges-scale volcanic eruptions, mega earthquakes, deadly pandemics . . .) or by ‘accidental’ factors (military scientists destroying the atmosphere, tests of superweapons backfiring, laboratory-made superbugs escaping . . . ).

giga-trend scenarios
End Game Scenarios [Revised] The probability of lifestyle global war breaking out (before a major ecosystems collapse occurs) is about twice higher than the combined probabilities of all other possible scenarios that may unfold in the near future.

Posted in Champaign Club, dynamics of collapse, economy, End Game Scenarios, Extraterrestrial, future, Giga Trends, Global War, Involuntary Mass Euthanasia, lifestyle, World Spirit, Zeitgeist | 27 Comments »

How many are up there polluting our skies?

Posted by feww on March 23, 2008

There’s a fundamental systemic problem. It’s called exponential growth economy and it’s degrading, polluting, tearing apart destroying and otherwise killing off everything in its domain. In the absence of a ‘radical’ change to the economic system our world is rapidly falling apart.

Related Link: World Problems: The Root Cause Matrix

Worldwide Airport Traffic Summary [YE December 2007]

  • Passengers : 4,479,822,865 (Up 6.4% YoY)

  • Air Freight (Mt) : 80,342,643 (Up 2.5% YoY)

  • Aircraft Movements : 68,636,424 (Up 2.4% YoY)

Copyright Airports Councils International. See Fair Use Notice

Original Post: How many are up there polluting our skies?

Posted in air pollution, air traffic, atmosphere, economy, environment | Leave a Comment »

World Problems: The Root Cause Matrix

Posted by feww on March 21, 2008

Posted in collapsing ecosystems, dwindling resources, energy, exponential growth economy, industrialism, pollution, Root Cause Matrix, world problems | Leave a Comment »

Oceans Are Dying!

Posted by terres on March 20, 2008

Our Oceans, Where Life Started, Are Now Dying:

Posted in coasts, continental shelf, Life, Oceans, Water Pollution | Leave a Comment »

Nuking Earth for Lifestyle

Posted by edro on March 10, 2008

The Next Phase of Collapse: Wars initiated by Israel/US for Hegemony Over World’s Resources

Wars by Israel/US for hegemony over resources are about the survival of the fattest. They are fought by the urge to secure more of other peoples’ resources: More water, more food, more fertile land and more energy to maintain unsustainable lifestyles.

In the most likely scenario, as the first phase of world’s cities begin to collapse, an all-out global war would break out started by Israel and the United States that would be fought with nuclear, exotic, biological and conventional weapons.

Why would a global war break out?

  • The self-fulfilling prophecy for Israel [through US] to rule the world
  • World’s resources are dwindling (competition for the remaining finite resources is rapidly intensifying).
  • The exponential growth economy and its two leading pathogens, overproduction and overconsumption, together with unsustainable lifestyles and unethical behavior are degrading the world’s remaining resources.
  • Climate change is affecting the availability, or access to resources.
  • Global rates of consumption of water, food and energy are exponentially increasing.
  • The consumption rate has long surpassed the sustainability rate.
  • The world topsoil is falling below the critical level at which point production declines sharply.
  • Two-thirds of ecosystems are collapsing.
  • Deteriorating local resources and food insecurity, economic uncertainty and poverty, political corruption and instability, among other mechanisms of collapse, result in the collapse of cities and population centers.
  • Cities, population centers and settlements are abandoned.
  • Large-scale migrations ensue at regional, national and international levels.
  • Large numbers of migrants put additional terminal strain on the remaining resources.
  • Nations outstrip nature’s carrying capacity.
  • Civil conflict and war break out.

Original Photo: The mushroom cloud from XX-11 IvyMike (Fusion Bomb). Public domain photo.
Source: United States Department of Energy
Inset: Tomahawk Block IV Cruise Missiles

Types of Resource Wars

  • Regional Conflict
  • Civil War
  • Border (interstate) War
  • Global [nuclear] War

Hiroshima after the atom bomb. [Today’s much more powerful bombs
would robably detroy the remaining infrastructure such as the bridges.]

Nagasaki after the nuclear bomb codenamed “Fat Man”
(after Winston Churchill) was dropped on her in 1945.

More than 100,000 victims killed in large air attack on Tokyo:
234 B-29 bombers dropped 1665 tons of incendiary bombs.

Source: Wikimedia Commons

The Most Likely Strategies

  1. Form objective-driven alliances. [The traditional military alignments would no longer apply, as survival alone would dictate offensive and defensive strategies.]
  2. Depopulate primary targets to minimize resistance.
  3. Launch preemptive strikes employing overwhelming force (first strike) against the opponents (rivals nations competing for the same resources).
  4. Attack both military (counterforce) targets, to weaken enemy retaliation, and civilian (countervalue) targets to maximize strike [kill] value.

The MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missile firing. Public Domain Photo: Wikipedia

Primary Targets

Primary targets are selected according to the

  • Availability of resources: Water, wild food, land (agricultural and forest), Energy (Fossil fuels and other available resources.)
  • Content value: Amount of the available resources
  • Vulnerability metrics: The ease by which the target can be depopulated and re-occupied.

Table NE1. The Primary Targets

Public Domain Photo: USAF/Dept of Defense
MGM-118A Peacekeeper
(!) nuclear missile

See also: Enewetak atomic detonations

Table EN2a. The Players
‘GL’ denotes Global.
2. CO: Continental.
IS: Interstate (cross border).

For full list of The Players click here: Table EN2b

A Minuteman III ICBM test launch from Vandenberg AFB, California, United States.
Source: Wikimedia Commons

Table EN3. Secondary Targets

Trident missile launch at sea from a UK submarine. Source: Wikimedia Commons

The Hotspots

‘Hotspots’ are considered to be the countries, regions or areas that are worst affected by water scarcity, food or energy shortages, degraded land, and the corresponding political instability created as a result of those conditions, as well as those areas that are considered to be primary or secondary targets because of their relative abundance of natural resources.

Our data analysis show that within a short time global list of countries facing a high risk of political instability and danger of armed conflict resulting from dwindling resources, which would be exacerbated by the adverse effects of climate change, would grow rapidly leaving very few places, if any, temporarily unaffected.

List of Nuclear Weapons [Incomplete]

Posted in cruise missile, ICBM, lifestyle, limits to growth, natural resources, resource wars | Tagged: , , , | 44 Comments »