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Archive for the ‘dynamics of collapse’ Category

Posted by edro on July 11, 2012

FIRE-EARTH DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN:
1,344 Days Left

ROCKETING UP: Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN)

Fire-Earth and EDRO models show

As of end-June 2012, the CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the human impact on the planetary life support systems, stood at an astoundingly high level of 285. In other words, the anthropogenic impact on the living environment has now exceeded 2.85 times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity. 

“According to HIoN projections, our cities and population centers could become almost entirely unsustainable by as early as 2015.”

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Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

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Posted in dwindling resources, dynamics of collapse, earth's defense mechanisms, ecological footprint, End Game Scenarios, energy, energy dinosaurs, First Wave of Collapsing Cities | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Global Collapse Update

Posted by edro on May 31, 2012

Japan’s collapse rate is accelerating

Based on their models, FIRE-EARTH Moderators have posted the following forecast:

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:  The rate of Japan’s collapse to intensify.

  • Current: 0.067
  • Forecast: 0.083
  • EHC: 0.117

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Posted in collapse mechanisms, collapsing cities, collapsing ecosystems, dynamics of collapse, earth's defense mechanisms, Effective World Population, environmental health, Mechanisms of Collapse, Nature’s defense mechanisms | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Deadly Dozen Diseases

Posted by edro on October 8, 2008

The “Deadly Dozen” Fits into the Collapse Jigsaw!

WCS has identified 12 deadly pathogens that could spread into new regions aided by climate change

A report by Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), released on October 7, lists 12 deadly pathogens that could spread globally as a result of climate change affecting the wildlife, which could then jump species barrier to infect and spread among humans. (Source)

The deadly diseases are:

  • Avian influenza
  • Babesia
  • Cholera
  • Ebola
  • Intestinal and external parasites
  • Lyme disease
  • Plague
  • Red tides
  • Rift Valley fever
  • Sleeping sickness (trypanosomiasis)
  • Tuberculosis
  • Yellow fever

The Dynamics of Collapse

Three major causes of global collapse triggered by the first wave of the world’s collapsing cities, which were previously listed in EDRO’s Dynamics of Collapse, include the “deadly dozen” diseases in the WCS list:

  • Spread of pandemic diseases
  • Foodborne, waterborne, airborne and insectborne infectious diseases (viral, bacterial, parasitic, fungal, prion)
  • Epidemics of plant and animal diseases

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Posted in dynamics of collapse, Ebola, Lyme disease, Red tides | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

How Much CO2 Are You Producing?

Posted by edro on August 8, 2008

Original Entry: World CO2 Emissions

World Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption (including Flaring) Cement Production and Tropical Deforestation

CO2 This Year ( From 1-1-2008 to 8-8-2008 )
23,803.61 MMT CO2

CO2 Total 2007
38,058.66 MMT CO2

Anthropogenic CO2 Total (1750 – Today)
1,358,931.31 MMT CO2

Total atmospheric CO2

3,008,879.36 MMT [3,008.88GT]

How much CO2 are YOU producing?

Each dollar you earn or spend produces 584 g of CO2. [See Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar]

How much CO2 was there before?

Measurements of CO2 levels in Ice cores collected in Antarctica and Greenland indicate that the preindustrial carbon dioxide level was 278 ppm. Between 1000 and 1800 A.D. that level varied by no more than 7 ppm.

What about human activities?

The CO2 levels have now reached 386 ppm, which means human activities have increased the concentration of atmospheric CO2 by 109 ppm or 39 percent.

Notes:
MMT: Million Metric Tons
GT: Gigatons (billion tons)
Sources: CASF/MSRB; CDIAC; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Earth Systems Research Laboratory; Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data.

The following data were used to calculate the total mass of atmospheric CO2 :
1. Mass of dry air: 5.1352 × 1018 kg
2. The mean molar mass of air: 28.9625 g/mol.
3. Molar mass of CO2: 44.0095 g/mol.
4. Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data: 385.60ppmv

[Note: On various websites reporting the carbon dioxide emissions since 1750 the cumulative amount varies from about 1.3 – 1.8 trillion tons. On one website the amount is published once as 1.36 trillion tons and again as 1.71 trillion tons of CO2 on separate pages. Understandably, no sources are quoted. ]

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Posted in air pollution, atmosphere, carrying capacity, climate change, collapsing ecosystems, dynamics of collapse, economy, energy, environment, future, lifestyle, ocean acidification, pollution, soil, war | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Positive Feedbacks

Posted by edro on April 30, 2008

Tipping Point

A confirmation of tipping point is presented in the following report by James Hansen, NASA climatologist:

Excerpts from Hansen’s report:

  • We are at the tipping point because the climate state includes large, ready positive feedbacks provided by the Arctic sea ice, the West Antarctic ice sheet, and much of Greenland’s ice.
  • Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-made greenhouse gases reach a level where major climate changes can proceed mostly under their own momentum. Warming will shift climatic zones by intensifying the hydrologic cycle, affecting freshwater availability and human health.

Source:Tipping Point: Here and Now!
Report:Tipping Point: PERSPECTIVE OF A CLIMATOLOGIST [PDF]

The ice in the Arctic is much younger than normal, with vast regions now covered by first-year ice and much less area covered by multiyear ice. Left: February distribution of ice by its age during normal Arctic conditions (1985-2000 average). Right: February 2008 Arctic ice age distribution. Credit: NSIDC [Caption: NASA]

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Posted in air pollution, Arctic, atmosphere, civilization, climate, climate change, CO2, dynamics of collapse, Earth, energy, environment, extinction, future, health, HIoN, Human activities, human migration, Human-induced climate change, ice dynamics, Index of Human Impact on Nature, industrialism, lifestyle, limits to growth | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Giga Trends

Posted by terres on March 28, 2008

Know Exactly Where You Are Heading

Without a complete change of direction in human activities, the economy and lifestyles, and based on the elite Zeitgeist, “World Spirit,” the available data and observed trends

  • History of civilization (past experience)
  • Current socioeconomic developments (present trends)
  • The exponential rate at which the dynamics of collapse are compounded (future events)

CASF Model, using seven “Giga Trends,” has produced the following forecast concerning the probability of incidence of each trend.

End Game Scenarios

  • The Champaign Club Scenario. Water, food, shelter, sanitation, education, health and energy continue to be available at increasingly higher prices to anyone who can afford it.
  • The Gaza Strip Scenario. Majority of humanity is caged like animals, and kept under permanent military curfew.
  • Involuntary Mass ‘Euthanasia’ Scenario. More than 90 percent of world population is annihilated by the world elite via conventional methods such as genocide by starvation, ethnic cleansing, disease and poverty, or using biological and chemical agents including exotic depopulation weapons.
  • A Sustainable Future Scenario. Humanity rapidly climbs the evolutionary ladder, reverses the exponential growth economy and opts for non-suicidal, sustainable lifestyles.
  • Extraterrestrial Doom Scenario. Life on Earth becomes extinct [in the next seven years] when a large extraterrestrial object (asteroid or bolide) strikes the planet.
  • Lifestyle Global War Scenario. A war fought to secure additional resources required for maintaining unsustainable lifestyles.
  • Large-scale Global Catastrophes. Sudden death (major species extinction) caused by multiple ‘natural’ factors (larges-scale volcanic eruptions, mega earthquakes, deadly pandemics . . .) or by ‘accidental’ factors (military scientists destroying the atmosphere, tests of superweapons backfiring, laboratory-made superbugs escaping . . . ).

giga-trend scenarios
End Game Scenarios [Revised] The probability of lifestyle global war breaking out (before a major ecosystems collapse occurs) is about twice higher than the combined probabilities of all other possible scenarios that may unfold in the near future.

Posted in Champaign Club, dynamics of collapse, economy, End Game Scenarios, Extraterrestrial, future, Giga Trends, Global War, Involuntary Mass Euthanasia, lifestyle, World Spirit, Zeitgeist | 27 Comments »