Japan’s collapse rate is accelerating
Based on their models, FIRE-EARTH Moderators have posted the following forecast:
FIRE-EARTH FORECAST: The rate of Japan’s collapse to intensify.
- Current: 0.067
- Forecast: 0.083
- EHC: 0.117
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Posts Tagged ‘First Wave of Collapse’
Global Collapse Update
Posted by edro on May 31, 2012
Japan’s collapse rate is accelerating
Posted in collapse mechanisms, collapsing cities, collapsing ecosystems, dynamics of collapse, earth's defense mechanisms, Effective World Population, environmental health, Mechanisms of Collapse, Nature’s defense mechanisms | Tagged: Collapse of Japan, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, First Wave of Collapse, First Wave of Collapsing Cities, Japan's collapse | Leave a Comment »
Could Sydney, Australia Be Buried by Dust Storms
Posted by edro on October 19, 2009
How Large Is Your Dust Storm?
On September 23, 2009 our colleagues at FEWW posted the following on their blog:
FEWW entry summarized a phenomenal dust storm which had started a day earlier ( September 22), sweeping across Australia’s eastern states of New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (Qld), reaching Sydney, the country’s largest city, and Brisbane.
The dust plume measured about 500 kilometres wide and at least 1,000 km long, covering dozens of communities, towns and cities in both states.
Recently, they posted details of another dust storm
They have now asked EDRO Moderators the following questions:
‘How much dust would it take, and under what circumstances could it make Sydney uninhabitable?’
Desertification of farmlands, villages and small communities have been commonly occurring throughout history. In recent times, countries like China have experienced accelerated rates of desertification. Up to 3 million km² of land in China have already desertified. The country’s annual desertification rates have more than doubled to 3,400 km² since the 1970s (1,560 km²) and have increased by 62 percent compared with the 1980s (2,100 km²). Thousands of villages have been lost to encroaching deserts.
According to a report by the Secretariat of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), “some 24,000 villages, 1,400 kilometres of railway lines, 30,000 kilometres of highways, and 50,000 kilometres of canals and waterways are subject to constant threats of desertification.”
“Dust-laden blasts have buried villages before blowing into cities and suffocating urban residents.”
Historic examples are abound about large cities in Africa, Asia, Near and middle East that were lost to desert.
Chilean town of Chaitén is one of the latest examples of a town lost to [human-enhanced] natural phenomena, namely lahar caused by volcanic ash deposits, and other pyroclastic materials.
Well, Could it Happen to Sydney, Australia?
The short answer is yes!
Given copious supplies of dust [or sand,] sufficiently strong winds, as well as extremes of climatic and atmospheric conditions conducive to precipitating large amounts of airborne dust on the ground, dust storms could bury any village, town or city in their path and make them partially or completely uninhabitable.
Under the said conditions, one or more dust storms blowing within a critical period of time, with wind forces lasting long enough to deposit significantly large amounts of dust over a critically large portion of the city could trigger a partial or total collapse of Sydney [or other cities in eastern Australia.]
How Much Dust?
Australia’s CSIRO estimated that the September 22-24 storm carried a record-breaking 16 million tons of dust from the deserts in the heart of Australia [The Lake Eyre Basin was reportedly the main region, where the dust came from.] Interestingly enough, the media boasted how the benevolent storms had dumped a million tons of iron-rich topsoil from Australia’s outback into the Tasman Sea and Pacific Ocean.
Most of the dust spread over a vast area precipitating on the continental Australia, Indian ocean to the west, and Tasman Sea to the east, reaching as far as the North Island, New Zealand.
EDRO Team designed a basic model and, using the available data, ran a few dozen simulations. The simulations showed that the amount of dust needed to ‘bury’ central Sydney [an area about 100 km²,] so as to make the entire city mostly uninhabitable, would be about 10-12 times the dust blown off in the Septemeber 22-24 dust storm.
Notes:
- The simulations were based on optimally extreme climatic and atmospheric conditions conducive to precipitating large amounts of airborne dust in a relatively small area.
- Dust diameters of (i) less than 60 micrometer, and (ii) 62 – 65 micrometer, were used in the simulations.
- The maximum air particle concentration levels reached over 45,000 micrograms/m³ of air.
- As the air particle concentration levels rose above about 25,000 micrograms/m³ of air, the number of casualties dramatically increased.
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Posted in australian coal, carbon-intensive economy, Chaitén town, climate change, collapsing cities, desertification, drought, ghost towns | Tagged: desertification, dust storm australia, dust storm Brisbane, dust storm NSW, dust storm Qld, dust storm sydney, dust storms, First Wave of Collapse, First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities, sand storms | 3 Comments »
Image of the Day: Hong Kong Skyline at Night
Posted by edro on November 17, 2008
Hong Kong: Facing an Increasingly Uncertain Future
Hong Kong may be among the world’s first Megapolises to experience a total collapse
The night skyline of Hong Kong, Victoria Harbour and Kowloon, as seen from Victoria Peak, the tallest mountain on Hong Kong Island. With a population of more than 7 million, HK is one of the most densely populated areas in the world. Author: Diliff. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.
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Posted in energy, environment, future, lifestyle, pollution | Tagged: dynamics of collapse, First Wave of Collapse, Hong Kong, large scale collapse, Megapolis | Leave a Comment »
The Collapse Engine Revving UP!
Posted by msrb on August 18, 2008
The problems?
- Water scarcity. About 3 billion people are affected by water scarcity caused by diminishing reserves of freshwater (excessive use), climate change (drought, extreme climatic events, vanishing snow caps…)
- Excessive volumes of wastewater produced by growing urban population
- Increased demand for crops to feed growing urban population
The “Quick Fix!”
Irrigating urban agricultural land with untreated wastewater!
A possible outcome:
Spread of pandemic diseases leading to large scale collapse
A new 53-city study conducted by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) reveals that about 80 percent of the cities studied use untreated or partially diluted wastewater for agriculture. At least 50 percent of the urban agricultural land in those cities is irrigated with raw or diluted wastewater.
“Irrigating with wastewater isn’t a rare practice limited to a few of the poorest countries. It’s a widespread phenomenon, occurring on 20 million hectares across the developing world, especially in Asian countries, like China, India and Vietnam, but also around nearly every city of sub-Saharan Africa and in many Latin American cities as well,” said IWMI researcher Liqa Raschid-Sally.
“It’s a widespread phenomenon, occurring on 20 million hectares (50 million acres) across the developing world, especially in Asian countries, like China, India and Vietnam, but also around nearly every city of sub-Saharan Africa and in many Latin American cities as well.”
Wastewater is most commonly used to produce vegetables and cereals, especially rice, pose a health threat to the farmers as well as the consumers.
“The negative and positive implications of wastewater agriculture have only recently received attention. This study offers the first comprehensive, cross-country analysis of the conditions that account for the practice and the difficult tradeoffs that arise from it,” said Colin Chartres, director general of IWMI.
About 200,000 people in Accra, 10 percent of the urban population of Ghana’s capital city, consume vegetables produced on just 100 hectares of urban agricultural land, which is irrigated with wastewater, according to the IWMI report. “That gives you an idea of the large potential of wastewater agriculture for both helping and hurting great numbers of urban consumers.” Raschid-Sally said.
“And it isn’t just affluent consumers of exotic vegetables whose welfare is at stake. Poor consumers of inexpensive street food also depend on urban agriculture.” She reported.
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Posted in 286W, Accra, climate change, economy, energy, environment, future, ghana, lifestyle, pollution, soil | Tagged: cereals, china, Cities Collapse Engine, collapsing cities, First Wave of Collapse, India, IWMI, Japan, large scale collapse, Latin America, Liqa Raschid-Sally, Quick Fix, raw vegetables, rice, Spread of pandemic diseases, sub-Saharan Africa, untreated wastewater, urban agriculture, urban population, Vietnam, Water Cycle, water scarcity | 1 Comment »
EDRO 