Future Scenarios

Giga Trends

Future Scenarios [MSRB]
Great Transitions
World Lines
AC/UNU Millennium Project [2020 Global Energy Scenarios]
Mapping The Global Future [National Intelligence Council]

Caution: The above links are included for information only. Blog Moderators do not endorse any outside organization or project that are listed on this website.

Case Studies

1. 2000 Watt Society
2. Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A Roadmap for U.S. Energy Policy
3. Dongtan “Eco-City”
4. Purported “eco-cities” of

….. a. Helsingborg (Sweden) and Helsingør (Denmark)
….. b. Trondheim, Norway
….. c. Tudela, Spain

1. 2000 Watt society; White Paper, Executive Summary (PDF 0.4MB); Full Document (PDF 3.6MB) and “Smarter Living“
[Note: Without a radical change in the economy, the objectives of the 2000W Society as stated in their ‘White Paper,’ cannot be met. Although the proposed reforms appear to be heading in the right direction, the targets are NOT far-reaching enough and would prove ineffective from a global perspective. Additionally, the proposed timeline for the “powerdown” is too long and therefore unrealistic. ]

Responding to the following questions raised by a CASF Committee Member

1. Is the 2000-Watt Society still a going concern, or has it proven to be a white elephant?
2. Have any of the goals/targets been modified, given the new evidence on accelerated global warming?

Prof. Dr. Eberhard Jochem (em.), The 2000Watt Society Project Coordinator wrote:

1. The 2000 Watt society as a concept and a target setting vision is still very vivid. The Swiss government has aseked in its last energy demand projections made by several research institutions to explore in one Scenario the possibilities of reducing the energy demand accoring to the concept of the 2000 Watt society. The city council of Zurich has also asked to explore the implications of a 2000 Watt society for the next decades. The German Government and some scientists in South Korea have taken up the ides of a 2000 Watt society in the light of the climate change and the unacceptable projeted growth of global greenhouse gas emissions. The Stern Rewiew and the recent Forth Assessment report of IPCC have some impact on searching for the optentials of efficient energy and material use.

We do not understand that the 2000 Watt per capita have to be met in 60 to 80 years during this century. This depends on the marginal cost of renewables and the marginal cost of efficient solutions in the decades to come. So if the renewables can substantially reduce their cost over the next three to five decades, the world may end up by an 3000 Watt per capita society. [We thank Prof. Dr. Eberhard Jochem and await further explanation from him regarding the text marked in red.] In this sense, the 2000 Watt is a methapher signaling that minor efficiency improvements will not be the answer to the climate change challenge and the mid-depletion point of oil production.

2. No, the target has not modified because of the methapher character, I just explained. However, there are tendencies to combine the idea of the 2000 Watt society with the climate change challange, saying that the fossil fuel content of the 2000 Watt society has to be limited to 500 Watt per capita using fossil fuel. I personally doe not lile this concept, because it turns the attention again to the energy supply and away from the focus of efficient use of energy and materials.

Best wishes for your work.

Eberhard Jochem

Prof. Dr. Eberhard Jochem (em.)
Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE)
ETH – Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich
Departement MTECManagment, Technology, and Economics
Zürichbergstrasse 18
CH-8032 Zurich

See Also: Professional Misconduct by Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich Professor

2. Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A Roadmap for U.S. Energy Policy
Executive Summary (PDF 460 kB); Full Document (PDF 4.25MB); An Interview with the Author
[Note: In our opinion, the overarching issue of timeline in this book is fatally flawed because the author presumes business as usual could continue up to 2060. However, the dynamics of collapse are anything but static; therefore, his ‘solution’ because of its overly optimistic timeline is unreliable.]

3. Dongtan Eco-city; Dongtan
Preliminary information provided by the planners/architects, ARUP

Is Dongtan “eco-city” being built on stilts to prevent flooding? OR will it be the lost Atlantis of the Far East?
[Note: We are awaiting further information from ARUP. ]

Shanghai builds Green City on One Meter Elevation Land
Dongtan sits at the eastern tip of Chongming Island

4. The “eco-cities” of
a. Helsingborg (Sweden) and Helsingør (Denmark)
[A CASF Committee Member has contacted the lead company, COWI, which is responsible for the above project; however, they have not provided any information concerning Helsingborg and Helsingør the purported “eco-cities.”]

b. Trondheim, Norway [another eco-city?]
[A CASF Committee Member has contacted the lead company, COWI, which is responsible for the above project; however, they have not provided any information concerning the purported “eco-city” of Trondheim.]

c. City of Tudela, Spain [yet another “eco-city!”]
[A CASF Committee Member has contacted the lead company, COWI, which is responsible for the above project; however, they have not provided any information concerning the purported “eco-city” of Tudela.]

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Under Construction!