EDRO

Seeding Socioeconomic Avalanches! [Hacked by WordPress; filtered by Google!]

EDRO will reactivate blog soon!

Posted by edro on September 23, 2013

This blog will be updated periodically and readers’ comments would be moderated.

For latest global disaster alerts see Fire-Earth Blog.

Posted in First Wave of World Collapsing Cities | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Water Lilies Continue to Grow on Earth’s Eco Pond

Posted by edro on March 30, 2013

The Water-Lily Pond Clock

It’s 18:06 on Day 27

Related Links

GLOBAL WARNINGS

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in HIoN, human impact, Human Impact on Nature, Human-Enhanced Disasters, Human-induced climate change | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Posted by edro on July 11, 2012

FIRE-EARTH DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN:
1,344 Days Left

ROCKETING UP: Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN)

Fire-Earth and EDRO models show

As of end-June 2012, the CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the human impact on the planetary life support systems, stood at an astoundingly high level of 285. In other words, the anthropogenic impact on the living environment has now exceeded 2.85 times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity. 

“According to HIoN projections, our cities and population centers could become almost entirely unsustainable by as early as 2015.”

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in dwindling resources, dynamics of collapse, earth's defense mechanisms, ecological footprint, End Game Scenarios, energy, energy dinosaurs, First Wave of Collapsing Cities | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Rate of Global Collapse Accelerating

Posted by edro on July 6, 2012

The following post is reprinted with the permission of Fire-Earth Blog

WARNING: RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS!

Posted by feww on July 4, 2012

Tidal Surge of Global Change 26 Times Faster in 21st Century: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 26 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity that is caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, leading to a total collapse.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

Posted in Collapse, collapse mechanisms, collapsing cities | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Global Collapse Update

Posted by edro on May 31, 2012

Japan’s collapse rate is accelerating

Based on their models, FIRE-EARTH Moderators have posted the following forecast:

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:  The rate of Japan’s collapse to intensify.

  • Current: 0.067
  • Forecast: 0.083
  • EHC: 0.117

Related Links

Posted in collapse mechanisms, collapsing cities, collapsing ecosystems, dynamics of collapse, earth's defense mechanisms, Effective World Population, environmental health, Mechanisms of Collapse, Nature’s defense mechanisms | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Corporate America Won’t Survive Beyond 2015

Posted by edro on July 25, 2011

Corporate America Will Cease to Exist by 2015: EDRO Models

Of a half dozen or so probable future scenarios beyond 2015, as simulated by EDRO models, none would include Corporate America.

NO future is possible under the current economic, monetary, business and sociopolitical systems.

The current systems will collapse within the next 4 years, causing the violent death of the corporations in the U.S. and rest of the world.

Related Links:

Posted in 6th Great Extinction | Tagged: , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Nature’s Warnings Exponentially Intensifying

Posted by edro on April 14, 2011

EDRO Models: Mass Die-Offs Looming

Energy Models show large scale die-offs occurring by 2016

Dynamic simulations are consistent with the rate at which nature’s warnings are intensifying.

The warnings are becoming more direct and less ambiguous. Nature seems to be focusing more intensely on certain mechanisms to defend herself. See The Dynamics of Collapse.

The Earth is fighting to stay alive. IF she loses the fight we would all die!

Latest Probable Episodes

JPTRMT1 – Megathrust earthquakes are forecast to strike Japan Region releasing megabursts of energy, a total of about 80EJ of energy by 2016. See Forecast.

The Next Phase of Collapse: Global Wars for Hegemony Over World’s Resources. See Nuking Earth for Lifestyle

Background

U.S., the world, stake the future on high-energy strategies. Energy models’ simulations show all such strategies ending in collapse.

The first wave of collapse of world cities would be caused by a combination of failing ecosystems, human-enhanced environmental catastrophes; failing infrastructure; food, water and fuel shortages; infectious disease; war, civil conflict and other dynamics. Following the first phase of collapse, massive waves of human migration from the affected areas create a domino effect that causes the collapse of the remaining population centers shortly after.

In 2010, FIRE-EARTH said; In line with its concept of ‘Shrinking World,’ and based on simulations of FEWW EarthModel and EDRO Energy Models, Fire-Earth Moderators believe at least one disaster could strike somewhere on the planet each day, throughout 2010. The outlook for 2011 and beyond …

Global Disasters in 2011 Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of the Human Population.

The impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters on the population will be 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with 2010: Fire-Earth Forecast

Nearly all of the anthropogenic and human-enhanced disasters that will occur on the planet in the 2011-2012 period would have been preventable.

However, Humans continued to devour energy at a rate of 17.3terrawatt in 2011, when maximum ‘safe’ limit was less than 1.9terrawatt.

Based on their research, EDRO Moderators Have concluded that a series of man-made cataclysms will drive the earth’s population to near extinction.

Links

UPDATED April 16, 2011

Posted in 6th Great Extinction, die-offs, energy dinosaurs | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Collapsing Cities – JULY 2010 UPDATE

Posted by edro on July 3, 2010

When Will the Collapse Occur?

In The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities posted September 4, 2007, the Moderators forecast the first phase of collapse could occur as early as 2012.

The Moderators confirm that the timeline and speed of collapse are consistent with their earlier forecast.

Related Links:

Posted in Collapse, collapse mechanisms, collapsing cities, Human-Enhanced Disasters | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

The 6th Great Extinction: Sooner Than Expected

Posted by edro on May 23, 2010

Planetary collapse driven by man-made cataclysms

This blog has now been dedicated to the ‘survivors’ of the planetary collapse forced by man-made cataclysms

Based on their research, EDRO Moderators Have concluded that a series of man-made cataclysms will drive the earth’s population to near extinction.

[This section was removed to ensure NO association WHATEVER could be made with "Rapture apocalypse prediction."]

Most of the ‘survivors’ would be highly evolved, ethical and altruistic humans with the ability to overcome the immense difficulties they will have inherited . . .

Nevertheless, the Moderators believe by identifying the major man-made obstacles that stand in the way, they could, for their part, help to keep the flow of life on this planet uninterrupted.

EDRO Moderators

For background to the planetary collapse, search blog contents. Future information will be provided at this site OR at one of the following cites:

http://feww.wordpress.com/

http://msrb.wordpress.com/

http://rtsf.wordpress.com/

Posted in collapse mechanisms, collapsing cities, collapsing ecosystems, energy dinosaurs | Tagged: , , , | 12 Comments »

Escaping the Slum in Negative Numbers

Posted by edro on March 18, 2010

UN says 230 million people escaped life in the slums since 2000

China and India made “giant strides”in their housing efforts to relocate nearly a quarter of billion people out of the slums, UN Habitat agency reported.

The housing efforts were canceled out, however, by global population growth and the rural migration to cities, the report said.

Here are some of the stats:

  • Total  number of slum dwellers in 2000 were about 777 million
  • Slum dwellers total this year:  827 million
  • Percentage increase:  6.4%
  • World population now: 6,809,167,223 (US Census Bureau)
  • Population increase in the last 12 months:  75,395,78 (US Census Bureau)
  • Percentage increase over the last 12 month: 1.1%

Note: Actual numbers of the slum dwellers are much larger, unless people  could live in decent accommodations on less than $1.25 per day. It appears that the report used the old figures instead of the newer revised figures. “International Comparison Program’s new poverty estimates released in August 2008 show that about 1.4 billion people in the developing world (one in four) were living on less than $1.25 a day in 2005,” World Bank reported.

EDRO estimate for the number of people living on less than$1.25 per day: 2.2 billion (nearly 1 in 3 globally).


A Mumbai slum (India). Image may be subject to copyright.

UN defines a dwelling as a slum if at least one of the five factors below applies:

  • Lacks a permanent structure (see image)
  • More than three people sharing a room
  • Has no access to sufficient, or affordable water. Alternatively, it requires extreme effort to obtain water.
  • No private toilet or a public one shared with a maximum of a dozen or so people.
  • Comes without secure tenure

Related Links:

Posted in 286W, Dharavi, migration to cities, poverty, poverty in India | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Drought and Deluge: Two Major Mechanisms of Collapse

Posted by edro on February 23, 2010

Growing Disasters, Shrinking World

Drought and Deluge Wreaking Havoc Globally

The Philippines

Philippines farmlands are drying up in the intense heat; there’s  no rain in sight. The El Niño has affected about 160,000 hectares (ha) of farmland in the country, destroying more than 200,000 MT of crops including palay, rice and corn.

“Below normal rainfall is threatening some 42,000 hectares of rice paddies in the region, with 11,000 already beyond recovery and another 21,250 damaged. The dry spell has also affected corn crops in other areas.” FEWW said.

To ensure food security, for now at any rate, the Philippines  National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) is buying 2.65 million MT of rice, mostly from Vietnam and Thailand.

Syria

Persistent Drought in eastern and northeastern Syria regions has driven about 300,000 families to urban areas in search of work, a worrying massive population displacements in Middle East in recent history. Some villages have lost about half of their population to overcrowding cities. More than 80 percent of livestock on small and medium-sized farms have died as a result of a 75-percent rise in the cost of animal feed.


A dense plume of dust [sand] swept from Syria into Iraq on February 22, 2010. This photo-like image of the dust storm [sand storm] was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite in the early afternoon (12:30 p.m. in Syria, 1:30 in Iraq). Distinct plumes rise from many point sources in the Syrian desert. Within a few kilometers, the plumes blend into a dense cloud that completely obscures eastern Syria and western Iraq. The veil of dust is thick enough that the ground beneath is not visible, which means that people on the ground are probably getting little light from the Sun. Image Credit: NASA/MODIS/Jeff Schmaltz: Caption: Holli Riebeek.

China

In China’s southwestern provinces of Yunnan and Guizhou, up to 4 million hectares of crops have been damaged by severe drought. Water shortages are affecting about 6 million people and 3.6 million livestock. Several of China’s northern provinces are also affected by the dry spell, with major signs of stress emerging in the farmlands after a 40-day drought.

Island of Madeira (Portuguese Territory)

At least 42 people were killed and 120 others injured when torrential rains ledt to massive mudslides on the Atlantic resort island of Madeira flooding the popular holiday destination and destroying about 240 homes and damaging many more. Roads and other public infrastructure were also damaged by the storm.

Spain

Heavy rains which triggered extensive flooding  in the country’s southwest province cut off access to the city of Jerez, prompting the authorities to shut down the airport.

In Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spanish Territories), strong winds and violent downpour led to deluge across the island and left at leat ten thousand homes without electricity, according to the officials.

Related Links:

Posted in china, Collapse, drought and deluge, Philippines, Syria | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Gigantic Sculptures Odes to Moribund Civilizations

Posted by edro on February 10, 2010

Sculpture that killed a civilization

There can be little doubt the last Moai that was being carved on Easter Island was also the most expensive one in terms of its drain on the natural resources.

So expensive was the production, in fact, the sculptors did not proceed. Perhaps the last subculture was the largest unfinished sculpture, which would have stood about 21m (69 ft) tall, weighing a massive 270 tons.


Moai at Rano Raraku, Easter Island.

Giacometti’s life-size statue “L’homme qui marche I” in bronze is only 1.83m tall, but weighs 281 times the biggest Moai


Alberto Giacometti’s sculpture “L’homme qui marche I” sold for more than $104 million, making it the most expensive sculpture ever paid for by human civilization. Photo Credit: Sotheby’s

The biggest Moai is dwarfed, however, by Giacometti’s life-size statue “L’homme qui marche I” [Walking Man I] when compared in terms of carbon footprint.

The Walking Man I was sold at an auction for a total price of $104,327,006. Allowing another $26 million dollars for previous sales and currency adjustments, so far $130million dollars have been paid and received to move the bronze sculpture from one ahu to another on Earth Island.

Previously, in How Much Carbon Dioxide Does Your Money Make the CASF members calculated the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide  produced for each dollar you earn, or spend, at a global average of 584g of CO2/GDP dollar (2008 dollars).

Based on the above CO2 per dollar value, the Walking Man I has a carbon (CO2) footprint of 75,920 tons, or more than 883 times the weight of the biggest Moai discovered on Easter Island (it weighs 86 metric tons. FEWW.)

Related Links:

Posted in Carbon Dioxide, diminishing returns, Easter Island, First Wave of Collapsing Cities, L'homme qui marche I | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

10 Facts on Climate Change

Posted by edro on February 8, 2010

AND Its Impact on the Weather Patterns

  1. OUR Home planet is undergoing an extended period of accelerating Climate Change.
  2. The impacts of Climate Change on our weather patterns are worsening exponentially.
  3. Extremes of change in the temperature, precipitation, drought… are intensifying.
  4. The time periods within which the changes occur are shortening, therefore the rate of changes are accelerating.
  5. As an outcome of (1) to (4) above, the frequency and severity of climatic disasters are exponentially increasing.
  6. The disasters are targeting the planet’s water, soil, food and energy resources, increasing human vulnerability and triggering a die-off.
  7. Emerging patterns strongly suggest that the consequence of climate change are increasingly more catastrophic, beyond the wildest worst case conditions ever imaginable.
  8. The period of change could last for years to decades, Millennia to epoch. [Most of that would prove of no consequence to humans.]
  9. There`re NO known patterns for definitive comparisons of the extent of the changes.
  10. Unless the adverse affects of  human impact on the planet are removed, or substantially reduced, die-off will occur sooner rather than later.

Related Links:

Posted in die-off, human impact, human vulnerability, impact of Climate Change, Weather Patterns | Tagged: , , , , | 11 Comments »

Shrinking World, Shrinking Ecosystems

Posted by edro on December 27, 2009

Temperature velocity for the 21st century is 0.42 kilometers (0.26 miles) per year: Study

Climate Change Puts Ecosystems on the Run

Global warming is causing climate belts to shift toward the poles and to higher elevations. To keep pace with these changes, the average ecosystem will need to shift about a quarter mile each year, says a new study led by scientists at the Carnegie Institution. For some habitats, such as low-lying areas, climate belts are moving even faster, putting many species in jeopardy, especially where human development has blocked migration paths.

“Expressed as velocities, climate-change projections connect directly to survival prospects for plants and animals. These are the conditions that will set the stage, whether species move or cope in place,” says study co-author Chris Field, director of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology. Field is also a professor of biology and of environmental Earth system science at Stanford University and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment.

The research team, which included researchers from the Carnegie Institution, Stanford University, the California Academy of Sciences, and the University of California, Berkeley, combined data on current climate and temperature gradients worldwide with climate model projections for the next century to calculate the “temperature velocity” for different regions of the world. This velocity is a measure of how fast temperature zones are moving across the landscape as the planet warms―and how fast plants and animals will need to migrate to keep up.

EDRO Comments:

What the paper doesn’t mention, however, is the fact that the species “climbing a nearby mountain” in search of cooler temperatures would be climbing into an acid rain trap.

Forests and plants in mountain regions are heavily affected by “acid fog,” in addition to acid  rain. At higher altitudes, the lingering fog, which is more acidic than rainfall, surrounds the plants, affecting the leaves ability to carry out photosynthesis and produce photosynthetic products.

The acid fog does causes slower growth, disease and death of the plants and forests. Examples of this include the many areas of the eastern U.S., especially high altitude forests of the Appalachian Mountains.

The researchers found that as a global average, the expected temperature velocity for the 21st century is 0.42 kilometers (0.26 miles) per year. But this figure varies widely according to topography and habitat. In areas of high topographic relief, where species can find cooler temperatures by climbing a nearby mountain, velocities are relatively low. In flatter regions, such as deserts, grasslands, and coastal areas, species will have to travel farther to stay in their comfort zone and velocities may exceed a kilometer per year.

EDRO Comments:

The other factor is scarcity of food for many species due to the soil profiles of mountainous areas. Upland areas often have thin soils and glaciated bedrock, profiles that make it extremely difficult for plant growth.

Can the planet’s ecosystems keep up? Plants and animals that can tolerate a wide range of temperatures may not need to move. But for the others, survival becomes a race. After the glaciers of the last Ice Age retreated, forests may have spread northward as quickly as a kilometer a year. But current ecosystems are unlikely to match that feat, the researchers say. Nearly a third of the habitats in the study have velocities higher than even the most optimistic plant migration estimates. Even more problematic is the extensive fragmentation of natural habitats by human development, which will leave many species with “nowhere to go,” regardless of their migration rates.

Protected areas such as nature reserves are generally too small to accommodate the expected habitat shifts. According to the study, less than 10% of protected areas globally will maintain current climate conditions within their boundaries 100 years from now. This will present a challenge for many species adapted to highly specific conditions, especially if migration to new habitats is blocked.

Scott Loarie, a postdoctoral fellow at the Carnegie Institution and lead author of the paper, points out that an appreciation of climate velocities could stimulate discussions about sound management for climate change, from the design of nature reserves to the planning of assisted migrations for affected species. He adds that it should also stimulate discussion about strategies for minimizing the amount of warming and thereby help slow climate velocity.

The paper was published in the 24 December, 2009, Nature. Contact: Chris Field  cfield@ciw.edu

Related Links:

Posted in 286W, acid fog, acid rain, air pollution, climate change | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

What Florida Might Look Like in 2014

Posted by edro on December 7, 2009

The World Is Rapidly Collapsing

To fathom the reasons for world’s rapid collapse, the following basic premises should first be understood:

  • The sum total of human activities on the planet is exponentially INCREASING.
  • Humans consumptions of energy and resources continue to increase in parallel to its activities.
  • Pollution including  greenhouse gas emissions resulting from increased energy consumption is accumulating.
  • The increase in the consumption of energy and resources is enlarging humans ecological footprint.
  • The impacts of humans’ ever-enlarging ecological footprint and the accumulating pollution have driven most of the planetary-scale ecosystems to the verge of collapse.
  • In the absence of any intervention by the forces of nature, the large-scale ecosystem such as the atmosphere, climate, oceans, soil … will completely collapse, rendering the planet unable to support large species.
  • We can say with the maximum degree of certainty that in the absence of any ‘remedial action’ by natural forces the state of our planet would progressively worsen [NOT improve] with time.
  • Based on the evidence, including enhanced seismic and volcanic activity, WE BELIEVE, the earth is trying to maintain planetary “homeostasis.”
  • However, there is a high price to pay for the nature’s balancing act functions.
  • Planet earth is effectively becoming “smaller,” less hospitable. The quality of nature’s services are generally deteriorating, becoming more rudimentary
  • The effect of Nature’s balancing act functions, as harsh as they may be, should be viewed as desperate last measures: Survival of some, or extinction of all.

EDRO Moderators believe that the impact of global climate change, including extreme rain events, storm tides, and rising sea levels caused by both melting ice and slowing down [or disappearance ] of Gulf Stream could flood large swaths of eastern United States, especially the coastal areas of Florida.

Cities and population centers both on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts could experience complete or partial inundation for some of the year, most of the year, or permanently.

About 40 percent of Florida’s more densely inhabited areas, home to more than 65 percent of the population, could be impacted by the climatic events, rendering most of the existing cities effectively uninhabitable and affecting up to 90 percent of Florida’s population.

USGS Digital Elevation Map of The United States

Click on image to get map

The elevations correspond to the following legend:


Plotted on these maps are:

  • White – State, country, coast outlines
  • Gray – County outlines
  • Black – Rivers and major streams
  • Red – US Highways
  • Light red – Interstate Highways
  • Magenta – National Parks and Monuments

USGS Digital Elevation Map of Florida


Some of the areas most prone to flooding are marked on the map. The markings are meant as an indication only. They do not represent exact locations. Source of images: Unisys Weather. Images may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

Posted in civilization, climate change, Collapse, collapse mechanisms, collapsing ecosystems | Tagged: , , , , | 25 Comments »

 
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